Many observers blame AI for the squeeze on young graduates' jobs. Economists writing for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York point to a quieter factor: fewer people in the room to learn from.
Unemployment among college graduates under 29 rose from 3.1 percent in 2017–19 to 3.7 percent in 2022–25, while it held steady for older graduates. Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington and Harvard's Amanda Pallais found the widening gap concentrated in jobs that can be done remotely. Their estimate: remote work explains about 64 percent of the increase, and the timing points to distance rather than generative AI.
The mechanism will sound familiar to anyone who has trained a new hire. On a video call, it is harder to mentor, correct and coach. So firms hire people who need less of it.
The estimate comes from comparing occupations. Studies that observe how managers actually train people would be a valuable next step.
The finding and the AI debate point in the same direction. Juniors learn by watching experts work and getting corrected along the way. When the office empties or the entry-level tasks move to a machine, that learning quietly fades. In both cases, the answer is to make it deliberate: schedule the shadowing, narrate your reasoning out loud, review the work live.
Talent Takeaway
If your newest people work remotely, count how many hours last week they spent watching a senior colleague think. If the answer is close to zero, that is your development gap.
Read the original at Liberty Street Economics
Sources
Emanuel, N., Harrington, E., & Pallais, A. (2026, June). Remote work leaves younger workers sidelined. Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote-work-leaves-younger-workers-sidelined/
